Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.71 – 43.24

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 66 ±42.9

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 29.11Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 48.02Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.58Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.7 ±43.2

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -9.27Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 28.89Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.62Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6038, 11365, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 11365, 9995

Auto

19.0 23%

Teleop

40.4 49%

Endgame

22.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10470, 10415, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10470, 10415, 9990

Auto

12.4 28%

Teleop

23.0 52%

Endgame

9.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.57 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score43.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.5
Score range: 22–109
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

66Season APEX125.7

19Auto12.4

40.4Teleop23

22.3Endgame9.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	21
teleop	11	9
endgame	16	14
foul	0	0
total	48	44

Result

Final score

48 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts