Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.64 – 111.47

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.4 ±19.1

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 13.03Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 35.75Rank 13Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 34.86Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 118.1 ±44.3

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 92.18Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.42Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -1.13Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10415, 11255, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10415, 11255, 6038

Auto

20.3 26%

Teleop

36.6 47%

Endgame

20.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11453, 9997, 9160

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11453, 9997, 9160

Auto

1.9 2%

Teleop

52.5 59%

Endgame

35.3 39%

Strengths

· 11453 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score83.6pts

Blue projected score111.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.8
Score range: 67–128
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 92.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.4Season APEX118.1

20.3Auto1.9

36.6Teleop52.5

20.9Endgame35.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	11
teleop	30	81
endgame	18	55
foul	15	0
total	75	147

Result

Final score

75 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree