Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.7 – 43.96

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 43.2 ±57.8

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 52.39Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.96Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.35Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 96.9 ±42.7

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -4.86Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 15.82Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 33Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8795, 9995, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8795, 9995, 9990

Auto

13.4 17%

Teleop

35.9 46%

Endgame

29.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 11416, 11022

/ 100 compat

Projected

44 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 11416, 11022

Auto

21.5 96%

Teleop

8.0 36%

Endgame

-7.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.63 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score104.7pts

Blue projected score44pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.7
Score range: 26–123
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 97.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

43.2Season APEX96.9

13.4Auto21.5

35.9Teleop8

29.6Endgame-7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	38	15
endgame	22	0
foul	15	5
total	86	33

Result

Final score

86 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree