Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.98 – 51.36

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 36.7 ±58.3

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.9Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 50.36Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.72Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.1 ±43.5

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 23.75Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.69Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 15.92Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 10243, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 10243, 9990

Auto

5.7 7%

Teleop

47.9 61%

Endgame

24.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11022, 9997, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11022, 9997, 10521

Auto

8.3 25%

Teleop

15.7 47%

Endgame

9.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score85pts

Blue projected score51.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 28–108
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

36.7Season APEX117.1

5.7Auto8.3

47.9Teleop15.7

24.4Endgame9.6

50Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	6
teleop	66	12
endgame	27	9
foul	15	30
total	111	57

Result

Final score

111 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree