Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.77 – 147.02

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 57.8 ±42.9

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 22.83Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 24Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.94Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 102.5 ±43.7

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 36.75Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.56Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 81.71Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6038, 10246, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 10246, 9995

Auto

18.2 39%

Teleop

18.9 40%

Endgame

9.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9160, 9993, 8795

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9160, 9993, 8795

Auto

18.2 16%

Teleop

65.6 59%

Endgame

27.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score52.8pts

Blue projected score147pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.2
Score range: 30–170
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

57.8Season APEX102.5

18.2Auto18.2

18.9Teleop65.6

9.7Endgame27

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	12
teleop	23	19
endgame	24	23
foul	20	0
total	78	54

Result

Final score

78 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree