Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.06 – 169

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.3 ±43.8

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.67Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 2.09Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 72.3Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.2 ±18.5

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 69.2Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 103.8Rank 2Record 11-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9997, 10470, 11453

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, 10470, 11453

Auto

4.6 6%

Teleop

53.2 68%

Endgame

20.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8795, 11138, 11416

/ 100 compat

Projected

169 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8795, 11138, 11416

Auto

26.1 17%

Teleop

83.0 55%

Endgame

41.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score93.1pts

Blue projected score169pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.9
Score range: 71–191
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.3Season APEX178.2

4.6Auto26.1

53.2Teleop83

20.8Endgame41.8

9Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	23
teleop	19	91
endgame	14	15
foul	5	0
total	38	129

Result

Final score

38 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree