Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.89 – 63.28

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.1 ±42.9

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.89Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 26.31Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 54.69Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.9 ±19.7

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 14.77Rank 13Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 15.55Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 32.96Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9995, 11022, 11365

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 11022, 11365

Auto

18.1 22%

Teleop

41.1 51%

Endgame

21.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11255, 10521, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11255, 10521, 6038

Auto

12.5 41%

Teleop

11.0 36%

Endgame

7.0 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score97.9pts

Blue projected score63.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.6
Score range: 41–120
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 60 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.1Season APEX113.9

18.1Auto12.5

41.1Teleop11

21.7Endgame7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	10	12
endgame	5	4
foul	0	0
total	29	31

Result

Final score

29 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree