Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.28 – 78.43

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 62.4 ±57.6

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.45Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 25.2Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.63Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 27.3 ±57.6

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.11Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.2Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 30.12Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 11022, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 11022, 9997

Auto

10.4 18%

Teleop

34.9 61%

Endgame

11.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, 9993, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9993, 6038

Auto

21.2 35%

Teleop

26.8 45%

Endgame

12.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score76.3pts

Blue projected score78.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 54–100
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

62.4Season APEX27.3

10.4Auto21.2

34.9Teleop26.8

11.9Endgame12

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	13
teleop	11	21
endgame	7	7
foul	15	15
total	41	56

Result

Final score

41 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree