Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.32 – 50.63

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 113.8 ±19.1

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 13.34Rank 13Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 68.64Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 52.34Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170 ±20.3

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 31.48Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 26.4Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -7.25Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11255, 8795, 11365

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11255, 8795, 11365

Auto

23.5 20%

Teleop

59.5 50%

Endgame

35.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10415, 9160, 11416

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10415, 9160, 11416

Auto

17.6 47%

Teleop

16.6 45%

Endgame

2.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score134.3pts

Blue projected score50.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.7
Score range: 29–156
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

113.8Season APEX170

23.5Auto17.6

59.5Teleop16.6

35.4Endgame2.9

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	14
teleop	32	23
endgame	12	21
foul	45	15
total	113	73

Result

Final score

113 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree