Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.85 – 62

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 49.5 ±57.6

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.34Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.96Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -4.45Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.6 ±19.7

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 24.57Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 25.92Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 11.51Rank 13Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 9993, 10470

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 9993, 10470

Auto

10.7 35%

Teleop

15.9 52%

Endgame

4.1 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11022, 9160, 11255

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11022, 9160, 11255

Auto

13.3 31%

Teleop

24.8 57%

Endgame

5.2 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score38.8pts

Blue projected score62pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.1
Score range: 16–85
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

49.5Season APEX153.6

10.7Auto13.3

15.9Teleop24.8

4.1Endgame5.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	14
teleop	39	4
endgame	10	10
foul	0	45
total	69	73

Result

Final score

69 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree