Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.23 – 97.48

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364 ±41.9

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 48.68Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 231.99Rank 1Record 12-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.56Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 73.7 ±43.2

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 24.23Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.4Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 67.85Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11365, 6459, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.2 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11365, 6459, 9997

Auto

50.0 18%

Teleop

170.4 61%

Endgame

60.5 22%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10246, 9992, 8795

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10246, 9992, 8795

Auto

17.5 20%

Teleop

41.2 48%

Endgame

26.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score296.2pts

Blue projected score97.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 198.8
Score range: 75–318
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364Season APEX73.7

50Auto17.5

170.4Teleop41.2

60.5Endgame26.9

41Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	17
teleop	209	64
endgame	70	29
foul	5	0
total	345	110

Result

Final score

345 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree