Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.5 – 238.55

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 82.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114.9 ±43.2

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.72Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 43.71Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 27.07Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.5 ±17.5

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 230.58Rank 1Record 12-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 15.92Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -7.95Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 11365, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 11365, 10415

Auto

21.6 27%

Teleop

41.9 52%

Endgame

17.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6459, 10521, 11416

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6459, 10521, 11416

Auto

46.8 21%

Teleop

131.0 59%

Endgame

44.9 20%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score94.5pts

Blue projected score238.6pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144
Score range: 72–262
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114.9Season APEX414.5

21.6Auto46.8

41.9Teleop131

17.8Endgame44.9

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	46
teleop	32	29
endgame	25	1
foul	15	0
total	97	76

Result

Final score

97 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 82.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree