Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.9 – 124.54

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 54.7 ±58

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.04Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.36Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 10.5Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.2 ±18.5

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 103.27Rank 2Record 11-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -8.71Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 29.98Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 9990, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9990, 10521

Auto

15.5 36%

Teleop

25.8 60%

Endgame

1.8 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11138, 11416, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11138, 11416, 10415

Auto

25.6 22%

Teleop

60.6 53%

Endgame

27.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score76.9pts

Blue projected score124.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.6
Score range: 55–147
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

54.7Season APEX211.2

15.5Auto25.6

25.8Teleop60.6

1.8Endgame27.6

31Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	28
teleop	21	77
endgame	29	19
foul	15	30
total	84	154

Result

Final score

84 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree