Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.42 – 175.88

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.2 ±16.7

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 16.13Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -12.66Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 224.95Rank 1Record 12-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.2 ±22.6

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 73.78Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 67.45Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 34.65Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11022, 10470, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11022, 10470, 6459

Auto

43.4 20%

Teleop

129.6 60%

Endgame

41.9 19%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8795, 10243, 9160

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8795, 10243, 9160

Auto

14.6 9%

Teleop

97.7 61%

Endgame

47.1 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score228.4pts

Blue projected score175.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.5
Score range: 154–250
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.2Season APEX139.2

43.4Auto14.6

129.6Teleop97.7

41.9Endgame47.1

19Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	5
teleop	190	51
endgame	76	38
foul	15	10
total	318	104

Result

Final score

318 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree