Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.72 – 47.88

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.2 ±22

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 53.05Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 15.84Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 73.83Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 27.3 ±57.6

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.55Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 31.03Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 4.3Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11365, 10521, 11453

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11365, 10521, 11453

Auto

7.7 7%

Teleop

67.0 61%

Endgame

34.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 6038, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.9 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 6038, 9992

Auto

7.5 17%

Teleop

22.1 50%

Endgame

14.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score142.7pts

Blue projected score47.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.8
Score range: 26–165
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.2Season APEX27.3

7.7Auto7.5

67Teleop22.1

34.4Endgame14.8

10Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	15
teleop	34	29
endgame	23	7
foul	15	20
total	79	71

Result

Final score

79 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree