Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.3 – 106.16

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 75.4 ±43.8

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 61.75Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 49.17Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.38Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 58.8 ±58.3

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.02Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.28Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 73.86Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10243, 11365, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10243, 11365, 9993

Auto

12.3 11%

Teleop

71.0 65%

Endgame

26.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9992, 9990, 11453

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 9990, 11453

Auto

5.1 5%

Teleop

58.4 62%

Endgame

30.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score118.3pts

Blue projected score106.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.1
Score range: 84–140
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

75.4Season APEX58.8

12.3Auto5.1

71Teleop58.4

26.7Endgame30.9

44Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	0
teleop	72	80
endgame	50	6
foul	30	15
total	169	101

Result

Final score

169 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree