Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.63 – 148.88

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±21.5

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 12.74Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 63.74Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 31.15Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.9 ±21

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 76.33Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -1.35Rank 13Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 73.9Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11022, 10243, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11022, 10243, 10415

Auto

10.5 10%

Teleop

59.3 59%

Endgame

30.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11453, 11255, 8795

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11453, 11255, 8795

Auto

14.7 12%

Teleop

72.0 60%

Endgame

33.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score107.6pts

Blue projected score148.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.2
Score range: 86–171
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.3Season APEX133.9

10.5Auto14.7

59.3Teleop72

30.7Endgame33

56Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	16
teleop	65	104
endgame	14	70
foul	45	0
total	140	190

Result

Final score

140 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree