Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.15 – 321.37

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 98 ±43.5

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.14Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 53.98Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 37.03Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±41.7

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 202.36Rank 1Record 12-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.22Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 99.79Rank 2Record 11-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9995, 11365, 9160

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.2 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 11365, 9160

Auto

19.1 21%

Teleop

55.7 61%

Endgame

17.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6459, 9990, 11138

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.4 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6459, 9990, 11138

Auto

47.7 16%

Teleop

184.7 61%

Endgame

71.2 23%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.4 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score100.2pts

Blue projected score321.4pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -221.2
Score range: 79–342
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

98Season APEX425.8

19.1Auto47.7

55.7Teleop184.7

17.2Endgame71.2

22Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	69
teleop	34	263
endgame	25	70
foul	20	5
total	88	407

Result

Final score

88 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree