Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.73 – 0

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

60 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 89.7 ±42.9

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.05Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 16.5Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 43.18Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 84 ±42.7

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -9.79Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -14.55Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.07Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 11022, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 11022, 6038

Auto

12.6 22%

Teleop

27.2 47%

Endgame

18.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11416, 10470, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

-17.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11416, 10470, 9992

Auto

9.7 0%

Teleop

-21.6 100%

Endgame

-1.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score96.7pts

Blue projected score-17.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.7
Score range: -21–118
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 77 vs event baseline 118.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

89.7Season APEX84

12.6Auto9.7

27.2Teleop-21.6

18.1Endgame-1.8

33Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	32	2
endgame	13	5
foul	0	0
total	60	17

Result

Final score

60 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree