Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.17 – 99.7

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 106.7 ±43.2

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.34Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 27.89Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 35.94Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 97.9 ±43.7

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 18.31Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 71.35Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.04Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9993, 10246, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 10246, 10415

Auto

20.7 28%

Teleop

42.1 56%

Endgame

12.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10521, 8795, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10521, 8795, 9997

Auto

13.1 18%

Teleop

35.9 50%

Endgame

23.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score83.2pts

Blue projected score99.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.5
Score range: 61–122
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

106.7Season APEX97.9

20.7Auto13.1

42.1Teleop35.9

12Endgame23.1

47Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	9	50
endgame	2	23
foul	0	30
total	37	117

Result

Final score

37 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree