Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.12 – 36.92

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 61.8 ±42.7

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.67Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 44.18Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -10.73Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 118.1 ±20.4

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 59.64Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -3.54Rank 13Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -19.18Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 6038, 11416

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 6038, 11416

Auto

9.1 29%

Teleop

15.0 48%

Endgame

7.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10243, 11255, 10470

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10243, 11255, 10470

Auto

6.7 17%

Teleop

17.0 44%

Endgame

15.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score56.1pts

Blue projected score36.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.2
Score range: 15–78
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 122.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

61.8Season APEX118.1

9.1Auto6.7

15Teleop17

7Endgame15

75Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	7
teleop	8	33
endgame	15	0
foul	15	30
total	48	70

Result

Final score

48 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree