Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.32 – 128.05

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±57.4

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 93.74Rank 2Record 11-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.67Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.91Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.1 ±21.4

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 36.52Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 72.49Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 19.04Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11138, 9992, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11138, 9992, 9995

Auto

13.8 14%

Teleop

55.5 56%

Endgame

29.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10415, 8795, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10415, 8795, 10521

Auto

19.7 21%

Teleop

50.7 54%

Endgame

24.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score102.3pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.7
Score range: 80–150
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 121.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100.5Season APEX174.1

13.8Auto19.7

55.5Teleop50.7

29.3Endgame24.3

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	83	52
endgame	42	39
foul	0	15
total	149	124

Result

Final score

149 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree