Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.23 – 54.49

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 113.5 ±44.3

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 20.27Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 84.72Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 34.24Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 89.8 ±43.5

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 17.53Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.38Rank 18Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 10.58Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10521, 11453, 9991

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10521, 11453, 9991

Auto

14.5 14%

Teleop

69.2 64%

Endgame

23.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9160, 9990, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9160, 9990, 10246

Auto

17.6 48%

Teleop

11.3 31%

Endgame

7.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.78 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score139.2pts

Blue projected score54.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.7
Score range: 33–160
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

113.5Season APEX89.8

14.5Auto17.6

69.2Teleop11.3

23.6Endgame7.8

70Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	10
teleop	80	25
endgame	20	0
foul	85	45
total	196	80

Result

Final score

196 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree