Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.54 – 117.53

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.7 ±43.2

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -11.25Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 18.13Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.66Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.8 ±20.9

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 47.86Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 27.25Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 42.42Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10470, 10415, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.5 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10470, 10415, 9995

Auto

4.9 14%

Teleop

9.0 27%

Endgame

20.0 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11365, 11022, 10243

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11365, 11022, 10243

Auto

6.9 7%

Teleop

51.8 53%

Endgame

38.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.72 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score17.5pts

Blue projected score117.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100
Score range: -3–139
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.7Season APEX137.8

4.9Auto6.9

9Teleop51.8

20Endgame38.3

58Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	3	72
endgame	0	33
foul	15	15
total	35	131

Result

Final score

35 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree