Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.25 – 232.01

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 413

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 93.3 ±43.5

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 94.9Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -22.32Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.67Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.8 ±17.3

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 40.65Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 145.77Rank 1Record 12-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 45.59Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11453, 11416, 9991

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11453, 11416, 9991

Auto

21.7 22%

Teleop

59.9 61%

Endgame

16.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6038, 6459, 8795

/ 100 compat

Projected

232 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 6459, 8795

Auto

38.0 17%

Teleop

120.2 55%

Endgame

60.2 28%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score108.3pts

Blue projected score232pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.8
Score range: 88–252
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 109.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

93.3Season APEX395.8

21.7Auto38

59.9Teleop120.2

16.7Endgame60.2

133Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	60
teleop	50	214
endgame	15	89
foul	35	50
total	119	413

Result

Final score

119 – 413

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree