Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.36 – 54.64

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 9

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 76.2 ±57.8

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.9Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.39Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 27.07Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.8 ±43.5

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 36.75Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -10.67Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.56Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 9991, 10415

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 9991, 10415

Auto

20.0 44%

Teleop

15.4 34%

Endgame

9.9 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9160, 10470, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9160, 10470, 9993

Auto

11.4 27%

Teleop

22.5 53%

Endgame

8.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score70.4pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 32–93
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

76.2Season APEX108.8

20Auto11.4

15.4Teleop22.5

9.9Endgame8.2

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	9
teleop	22	0
endgame	13	0
foul	5	0
total	59	9

Result

Final score

59 – 9

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree