Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.57 – 97.36

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 92.7 ±43.2

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -4.93Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.79Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 39.71Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.1 ±22

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 14.87Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 44.58Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 37.91Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10470, 9991, 8795

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10470, 9991, 8795

Auto

10.4 30%

Teleop

11.0 32%

Endgame

13.2 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10521, 11365, 10243

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10521, 11365, 10243

Auto

19.6 27%

Teleop

39.3 55%

Endgame

12.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score59.6pts

Blue projected score97.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 40–117
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 110.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

92.7Season APEX130.1

10.4Auto19.6

11Teleop39.3

13.2Endgame12.5

50Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	8
teleop	27	64
endgame	20	48
foul	15	0
total	88	120

Result

Final score

88 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree