Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.31 – 50.16

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.2 ±20.3

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 13.22Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 47.17Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -9.08Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 34.5 ±57.4

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -17.81Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.88Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.09Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11022, 10246, 9160

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11022, 10246, 9160

Auto

19.8 44%

Teleop

18.1 40%

Endgame

7.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11416, 9997, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11416, 9997, 9993

Auto

13.1 29%

Teleop

22.8 51%

Endgame

8.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score51.3pts

Blue projected score50.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.2
Score range: 31–70
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.2Season APEX34.5

19.8Auto13.1

18.1Teleop22.8

7.4Endgame8.9

58Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	10	28
endgame	9	0
foul	40	15
total	74	58

Result

Final score

74 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree