Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.82 – 27.09

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 79.9 ±44

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 20.09Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 34.33Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.4Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 59.3 ±58

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -22.91Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.25Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.75Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10243, 8795, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10243, 8795, 9995

Auto

11.6 22%

Teleop

27.2 51%

Endgame

14.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9160, 9991, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9160, 9991, 9992

Auto

10.8 42%

Teleop

0.8 3%

Endgame

14.1 55%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.58 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score67.8pts

Blue projected score27.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 9–86
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

79.9Season APEX59.3

11.6Auto10.8

27.2Teleop0.8

14.3Endgame14.1

142Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	25
teleop	97	45
endgame	52	8
foul	0	0
total	161	78

Result

Final score

161 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree