Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.41 – 0

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.7 ±18.5

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 47.49Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 53.9Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 68.02Rank 2Record 11-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.1 ±19.1

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -25.36Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10415Torchers

Provisional

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 12.63Rank 9Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 6.09Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11365, 10246, 11138

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11365, 10246, 11138

Auto

29.6 19%

Teleop

90.9 57%

Endgame

39.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11416, 10415, 11022

/ 100 compat

Projected

-6.6 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11416, 10415, 11022

Auto

17.6 0%

Teleop

-22.4 100%

Endgame

-6.8 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score169.4pts

Blue projected score-6.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.4
Score range: -18–187
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 102.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.7Season APEX173.1

29.6Auto17.6

90.9Teleop-22.4

39.3Endgame-6.8

221Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	12
teleop	56	13
endgame	22	5
foul	30	0
total	137	30

Result

Final score

137 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree