Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.26 – 48.02

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 125.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 64 ±43.8

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 32.46Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 27.61Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.19Rank 12Record 6-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380 ±42.5

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 3.76Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 55.51Rank 1Record 12-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -11.25Rank 14Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10243, 6038, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10243, 6038, 9997

Auto

-8.4 0%

Teleop

55.0 74%

Endgame

27.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10521, 6459, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

48 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10521, 6459, 9993

Auto

20.2 39%

Teleop

20.7 40%

Endgame

10.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score85.3pts

Blue projected score48pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.2
Score range: 30–103
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 97.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

64Season APEX380

-8.4Auto20.2

55Teleop20.7

27.6Endgame10.9

60Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	40
teleop	11	168
endgame	2	41
foul	30	15
total	50	264

Result

Final score

50 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 125.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree