Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.96 – 81.29

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.5 ±18.5

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 23.94Rank 16Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 58.17Rank 2Record 11-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 35.85Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 38.7 ±57.6

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.61Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.22Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 32.46Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10470, 11138, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10470, 11138, 10246

Auto

9.6 9%

Teleop

75.8 69%

Endgame

24.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9992, 9991, 11365

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 9991, 11365

Auto

15.0 27%

Teleop

24.6 45%

Endgame

15.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score118pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.7
Score range: 64–135
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 94.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.5Season APEX38.7

9.6Auto15

75.8Teleop24.6

24.9Endgame15.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	20
teleop	72	32
endgame	35	24
foul	0	20
total	140	96

Result

Final score

140 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree