Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
186.68 – 146.66
62%38%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
230 – 142
Prediction correct · off by 24 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.8 ±13.5
Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 84.85Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 13.78Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 193Event APEX 88.05Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±13.9
Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 56.23Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 41.07Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 143Event APEX 49.36Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3102, 10137, 4674
82
/ 100 compatProjected
186.7 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 3102, 10137, 4674
Auto
37.8 20%
Teleop
103.3 55%
Endgame
46.7 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4013, 4576, 1038
69
/ 100 compatProjected
146.7 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 4013, 4576, 1038
Auto
23.5 16%
Teleop
80.1 54%
Endgame
43.5 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score186.7pts
Blue projected score146.7pts
Red win probability62%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 40
- Score range
- 124–210
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
372.8Season APEX367.8
37.8Auto23.5
103.3Teleop80.1
46.7Endgame43.5
0Consistency42
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 40 |
| teleop | 116 | 91 |
| endgame | 70 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 230 | 142 |
Result
Final score
230 – 142
Prediction correct · off by 24 pts
Match videos
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