Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.28 – 148.53

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.1 ±16.3

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 48.59Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 27.97Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 31.72Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±13.9

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 57.02Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 42.12Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 49.39Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 379, 2856, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 379, 2856, 1466

Auto

12.4 13%

Teleop

52.7 53%

Endgame

33.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4013, 4576, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4013, 4576, 1038

Auto

25.1 17%

Teleop

80.5 54%

Endgame

44.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.3pts

Blue projected score148.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.2
Score range: 86–171
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.1Season APEX367.8

12.4Auto25.1

52.7Teleop80.5

33.7Endgame44.8

22Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	17
teleop	54	74
endgame	44	38
foul	0	5
total	110	134

Result

Final score

110 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Match videos

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