Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.02 – 154.08

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.4 ±15.8

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 31.67Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 31.92Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 25.43Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.8 ±12.2

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 51.02Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 59.89Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 43.17Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5492, 3959, 1445

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5492, 3959, 1445

Auto

14.5 16%

Teleop

47.9 54%

Endgame

26.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7525, 3966, 4504

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7525, 3966, 4504

Auto

26.8 18%

Teleop

87.6 59%

Endgame

34.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89pts

Blue projected score154.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.1
Score range: 67–176
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.4Season APEX508.8

14.5Auto26.8

47.9Teleop87.6

26.7Endgame34

22Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	36
teleop	45	115
endgame	25	60
foul	0	5
total	93	216

Result

Final score

93 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Match videos

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