Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.56 – 144.63

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.9 ±11

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 26.39Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 89.14Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 79.03Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±13.9

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 56.3Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 41.03Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 47.3Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3824, 2393, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3824, 2393, 3492

Auto

33.6 17%

Teleop

106.4 55%

Endgame

54.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4013, 4576, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4013, 4576, 1038

Auto

24.2 16%

Teleop

82.2 56%

Endgame

40.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.6pts

Blue projected score144.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.9
Score range: 123–217
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.9Season APEX367.8

33.6Auto24.2

106.4Teleop82.2

54.5Endgame40.7

21Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	29
teleop	117	77
endgame	44	59
foul	5	0
total	203	165

Result

Final score

203 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Match videos

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