Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.46 – 103.68

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±11

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 35.98Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 136.23Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 132.25Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.1 ±16.3

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 46.03Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 27.08Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 30.57Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7111, 6517, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 6517, 2783

Auto

51.3 18%

Teleop

172.9 59%

Endgame

68.0 23%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 379, 2856, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 379, 2856, 1466

Auto

11.3 12%

Teleop

54.4 60%

Endgame

25.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score304.5pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.8
Score range: 82–326
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645Season APEX341.1

51.3Auto11.3

172.9Teleop54.4

68Endgame25.5

45Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	170	48
endgame	34	61
foul	5	0
total	226	125

Result

Final score

226 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Match videos

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