Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.85 – 75.06

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.8 ±11.2

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 138.95Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 1.69Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 172.21Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.4 ±15.8

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 28.04Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 26.95Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 20.07Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 1369, 4020

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 1369, 4020

Auto

51.1 16%

Teleop

177.6 57%

Endgame

82.8 27%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5492, 3959, 1445

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5492, 3959, 1445

Auto

13.9 19%

Teleop

35.6 48%

Endgame

25.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score312.9pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 237.8
Score range: 54–334
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.8Season APEX299.4

51.1Auto13.9

177.6Teleop35.6

82.8Endgame25.1

36Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	16
teleop	211	85
endgame	98	31
foul	35	0
total	403	132

Result

Final score

403 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 pts

Match videos

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