Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.71 – 274.18

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.8 ±11.2

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 151.14Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 9.31Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 181.26Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±11

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 25.47Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 126.25Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 122.46Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 1369, 4020

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 1369, 4020

Auto

57.5 17%

Teleop

185.9 56%

Endgame

90.6 27%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7111, 6517, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 6517, 2783

Auto

44.1 17%

Teleop

166.6 63%

Endgame

53.9 20%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score341.7pts

Blue projected score274.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.5
Score range: 251–365
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.8Season APEX645

57.5Auto44.1

185.9Teleop166.6

90.6Endgame53.9

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	13
teleop	184	121
endgame	98	57
foul	0	0
total	347	191

Result

Final score

347 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Match videos

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