Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.64 – 167.7

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.9 ±11

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 21.57Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 82.21Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 73.86Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.8 ±12.2

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 55.51Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 63.09Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 49.1Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3824, 2393, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3824, 2393, 3492

Auto

34.0 19%

Teleop

94.1 53%

Endgame

48.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7525, 3966, 4504

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7525, 3966, 4504

Auto

28.4 18%

Teleop

94.0 58%

Endgame

39.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.6pts

Blue projected score167.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.9
Score range: 145–201
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.9Season APEX508.8

34Auto28.4

94.1Teleop94

48.4Endgame39.7

21Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	49
teleop	81	71
endgame	87	41
foul	5	0
total	196	161

Result

Final score

196 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Match videos

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