Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.61 – 58.61

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.2 ±20.8

11337Mystery Machines

Provisional

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 11.71Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8778HSUWerx

Provisional

Season APEX 13.2Event APEX 4.86Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 18.04Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.3 ±14.5

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 28.86Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 4.86Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 24.89Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11337, 8778, 4630

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11337, 8778, 4630

Auto

6.5 20%

Teleop

14.1 42%

Endgame

12.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7111, 9152, 7917

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 9152, 7917

Auto

10.1 18%

Teleop

38.7 68%

Endgame

8.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.6pts

Blue projected score58.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24
Score range: 13–81
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.2Season APEX339.3

6.5Auto10.1

14.1Teleop38.7

12.6Endgame8.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	9
teleop	14	25
endgame	26	34
foul	0	0
total	49	68

Result

Final score

49 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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