Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.52 – 85.09

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±13.5

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX -Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 24Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 600.8 ±11.9

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX -Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX -Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 48.57Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4674, 1369, 379

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4674, 1369, 379

Auto

12.4 20%

Teleop

30.0 50%

Endgame

18.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2783, 10137, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2783, 10137, 4065

Auto

19.2 23%

Teleop

46.6 55%

Endgame

19.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.5pts

Blue projected score85.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 41–105
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.3Season APEX600.8

1.4Auto8.3

11.7Teleop28.3

10.9Endgame12

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	52
teleop	49	185
endgame	14	78
foul	0	0
total	91	315

Result

Final score

91 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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