Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.72 – 59.32

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.2 ±16.5

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 20.51Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 40.25Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 16.96Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.7 ±17

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 11.45Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 14.05Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 33.82Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9097, 4504, 7516

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 4504, 7516

Auto

27.9 35%

Teleop

28.9 36%

Endgame

22.5 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4630, 9152, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4630, 9152, 1466

Auto

13.6 23%

Teleop

19.2 33%

Endgame

26.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score59.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.4
Score range: 37–100
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.2Season APEX312.7

27.9Auto13.6

28.9Teleop19.2

22.5Endgame26.2

18Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	10
teleop	60	17
endgame	18	13
foul	10	0
total	107	40

Result

Final score

107 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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