Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.88 – 137.56

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.7 ±13.9

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 21.92Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 55.98Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 29.98Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.4 ±15.1

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 29.01Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11337Mystery Machines

Provisional

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 22.29Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 86.26Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3138, 7525, 3959

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3138, 7525, 3959

Auto

17.6 17%

Teleop

71.8 68%

Endgame

16.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7111, 11337, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 11337, 4674

Auto

28.0 19%

Teleop

75.1 52%

Endgame

40.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.9pts

Blue projected score137.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.7
Score range: 86–160
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 119.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.7Season APEX381.4

17.6Auto28

71.8Teleop75.1

16.6Endgame40.9

0Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	30
teleop	36	113
endgame	17	51
foul	0	0
total	77	194

Result

Final score

77 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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