Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.61 – 44.13

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.5 ±14.3

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 141.66Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 96.29Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 8.66Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±17

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -2.08Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 15.15Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 31.06Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 2393, 3843

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 2393, 3843

Auto

33.3 13%

Teleop

147.1 59%

Endgame

69.3 28%

Strengths

· 4065 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1369, 4265, 9668

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 4265, 9668

Auto

12.1 26%

Teleop

23.3 50%

Endgame

11.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score246.6pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 202.5
Score range: 23–268
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.5Season APEX213.5

33.3Auto12.1

147.1Teleop23.3

69.3Endgame11.1

27Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	17
teleop	82	46
endgame	100	11
foul	0	0
total	204	74

Result

Final score

204 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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