Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.72 – 54.56

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.7 ±17

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 18.27Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3821Pirabots

Provisional

Season APEX 13.6Event APEX -15.2Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 42.65Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±17

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 10.84Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 28.68Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 15.04Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7917, 3821, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7917, 3821, 1038

Auto

21.6 56%

Teleop

8.7 23%

Endgame

8.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11275, 5492, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11275, 5492, 10137

Auto

20.9 36%

Teleop

21.8 38%

Endgame

15.4 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.7pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.8
Score range: 25–76
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 118.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.7Season APEX227

21.6Auto20.9

8.7Teleop21.8

8.3Endgame15.4

22Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	69	21
endgame	27	33
foul	0	0
total	120	72

Result

Final score

120 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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