Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.94 – 110.98

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±18.1

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 30.69Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 12.82Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 91.43Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238 ±16.5

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 40.86Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8778HSUWerx

Provisional

Season APEX 13.2Event APEX 14.34Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 55.78Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2856, 5744, 3102

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2856, 5744, 3102

Auto

34.8 31%

Teleop

61.1 54%

Endgame

18.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4576, 8778, 4013

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 8778, 4013

Auto

14.9 14%

Teleop

61.2 57%

Endgame

31.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.9pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24
Score range: 90–156
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.8Season APEX238

34.8Auto14.9

61.1Teleop61.2

18Endgame31.5

1Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	25
teleop	41	62
endgame	35	46
foul	0	0
total	98	133

Result

Final score

98 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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