Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.6 – 101.27

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.7 ±13.5

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 81.75Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 10.06Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 17.79Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.4 ±16.2

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 65.5Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 13.36Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 22.41Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3492, 6302, 7428

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3492, 6302, 7428

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

42.5 50%

Endgame

26.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3966, 6774, 5276

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3966, 6774, 5276

Auto

14.0 14%

Teleop

53.6 52%

Endgame

34.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.6pts

Blue projected score101.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 79–132
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.7Season APEX356.4

15.4Auto14

42.5Teleop53.6

26.3Endgame34.9

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	24
teleop	9	19
endgame	22	16
foul	15	0
total	68	59

Result

Final score

68 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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