Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.55 – 45.8

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602 ±11

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 20.97Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 131.79Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 129.79Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.6 ±17

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 10.69Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 18.23Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 16.88Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3824, 6517, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3824, 6517, 2783

Auto

58.7 22%

Teleop

149.6 57%

Endgame

55.9 21%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3984, 7516, 9152

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.8 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 7516, 9152

Auto

13.3 28%

Teleop

18.3 38%

Endgame

16.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score282.5pts

Blue projected score45.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 236.8
Score range: 25–304
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602Season APEX245.6

58.7Auto13.3

149.6Teleop18.3

55.9Endgame16.5

51Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	9
teleop	214	14
endgame	81	4
foul	0	0
total	317	27

Result

Final score

317 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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