Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

43.67 – 43.67

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 199.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±18.8

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX -Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX -Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX -Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.3 ±11.7

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX -Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX -Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3843, 7516, 3102

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3843, 7516, 3102

Auto

13.1 30%

Teleop

21.8 50%

Endgame

8.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1038, 4020, 2393

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1038, 4020, 2393

Auto

13.1 30%

Teleop

21.8 50%

Endgame

8.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.7pts

Blue projected score43.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 28–60
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 87.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.7Season APEX604.3

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	57
teleop	66	218
endgame	40	73
foul	0	0
total	138	348

Result

Final score

138 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 199.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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